“对于每一个作用力，都有一个等大反向的反作用力。”
“To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction.”
— Isaac Newton,《Principia Mathematica》, 1687
共收录 267 条语录，其中逐字出处 171 条、转述 219 条。
“对于每一个作用力，都有一个等大反向的反作用力。”
“To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction.”
— Isaac Newton,《Principia Mathematica》, 1687
那些站在雇主的立场考虑问题的经济学家早就为激励机制引起的偏见所产生的后果取了一个名字：代理成本。正如代理成本这个术语所暗示的，这种现象既普遍又严重。
Economists whove studied the interests of employers long ago gave a name to the costs caused by the bias from incentives: agency costs. As the term agency costs suggests, the phenomenon is both widespread and severe.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“如果你想要说服别人，诉诸利益，而非诉诸理性。”
“If you would persuade, appeal to interest and not to reason.”
— Benjamin Franklin（芒格最常引用的格言之一）
在伯克希尔，我们试图通过合理的激励和信任来减少代理成本，而不是通过层层叠叠的监控。
At Berkshire, we try to minimize agency costs through sensible incentives and trust, rather than layers of oversight.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
成功投资的一部分秘诀就是用彩池投注系统的方式来思考：在赔率对你有利时下大注。
Part of the secret of successful investing is the pari-mutuel system way of thinking: bet big when the odds are heavily in your favor.
— 转述（据1994年USC商学院演讲相关论述整理）
“聪明的人在获胜概率很大时下重注，在其余时间则不下注。”
“The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they dont.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC商学院演讲）
生活就是一系列的机会成本。你必须把你的资金投入到期望值最高的地方。
Life is a whole series of opportunity costs. Youve got to marry the best person who is convenient to find who will have you.
— 转述（据1997年Berkshire年会相关论述整理）
我们只投资我们能理解的东西。在我们的能力圈之内，我们比其他人有优势。在我们的能力圈之外，我们没有任何优势。
We only invest in what we can understand. Within our circle of competence, we have an edge over others. Outside of it, we have no edge at all.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
承认你不知道什么，才是智慧的开端。
Acknowledging what you dont know is the dawning of wisdom.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在赌博中，聪明的做法是只在你有优势的时候下注。在投资中也是如此。”
“The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they dont.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
选择将权力交给谁时要很谨慎，因为权威人物一旦上台，将会得到权威错误影响倾向的帮助，那就很难被推翻。
Careful in picking who you grant authority to, because authority figures, once combined with the Authority-Misinfluence Tendency, will be very hard to remove.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
米尔格拉姆的实验证明了权威可以让普通人对其他人做出可怕的事情。
Milgrams experiment proved that authority could cause ordinary people to do terrible things to other people.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类服从权威人物的倾向深深植根于我们的本性。它在原始时代对我们有利，但在现代世界可能是灾难性的。
The human tendency to comply with authority figures is deeply rooted in our nature. It served us well in primitive times, but it can be disastrous in the modern world.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
Costco的模式是我见过的最让人佩服的零售模式之一。它建立了一种几乎不可能被打败的良性循环。
The Costco model is one of the most admirable retail models Ive ever seen. It has created a virtuous cycle that is almost impossible to beat.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我是一个检查清单的狂热信徒。飞行员不会没有检查清单就起飞，医生不应该没有检查清单就做手术。投资者也不应该没有检查清单就做决策。
Im a great believer in checklists. Pilots wont take off without going through their checklist, and doctors shouldnt perform surgery without one. Investors shouldnt make decisions without one either.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类的大脑通过不愿改变来节省编程空间，这是一种现状偏见。我们在错误衡量易得性倾向中看到了这一点，大脑高估了容易获得的东西。
The brain of man conserves programming space by being reluctant to change, which is a form of status quo bias. We see this in the Availability-Misweighing Tendency, where the brain overweighs what is easily available.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“一个想法或一个事实不会仅仅因为你容易获得它而变得更有价值。”
“An idea or a fact is not worth more merely because it is easily available to you.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
人类天生的错误衡量易得性倾向的主要解药是使用检查清单。
The main antidote to mans natural Availability-Misweighing Tendency is the use of checklists.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
那些格外生动的画面——倾向于对大脑产生更大影响的画面——是许多错误的成因。因为它们太容易被回忆起来，最终获得了过多的权重。
Extra-vivid images, the ones that tend to influence the brain more, are a cause of much error. Because they are so easy to recall, they end up receiving too much weight.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你们年轻时深受意识形态影响，然后开始传播这种意识形态，那么你们无异于将你们的大脑禁锢在一种非常不幸的模式之中。你们的头脑会退化。
If you get young and you get really ideology-ridden and start handing out ideology, youve just locked your brain into a very unfortunate pattern. And youll tend to just deteriorate.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
另外一件我发现的事情是，要得到正确的判断，你必须对对立观点有真诚的兴趣。如果你只是把自己裹在意识形态的大旗里走来走去，你不可能做出好的决定。
Another thing Ive found is that the correct judgment requires genuine interest in the opposing viewpoints. If youre just marching around wrapped in an ideological flag, you cant make good decisions.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我们没有靠天才取胜——我们靠的是避免愚蠢。如果你仔细观察我们的记录，你会发现我们没有做过什么惊天动地的聪明事，但我们也几乎没犯过灾难性的蠢事。
We havent won by being brilliant — weve won by avoiding stupidity. If you look at our record, we havent done many spectacularly smart things, but weve also done very few catastrophically stupid things.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果我知道我将来会死在什么地方，我就永远不去那里。这不是一个笑话——这是一种深刻的生活哲学。
All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there. Thats not a joke — its a profound philosophy for living.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在一个充满竞争的世界里，你需要有竞争优势。如果没有，你就不应该参与。”
“In a competitive world, you need a competitive advantage. And if you dont have one, dont compete.”
— 杰克·韦尔奇（Jack Welch）
可口可乐的品牌力量来自一种强大的巴甫洛夫条件反射——我们把这种饮料和所有人们喜欢的东西联系在一起。
The brand power of Coca-Cola comes from a powerful Pavlovian conditioning — we associate the drink with everything people like.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“另一种规模优势来自心理学。心理学家们使用社会认同这个术语。我们都会自动地——在潜意识中——受到其他人的行动和我们所观察到的审批所影响。因此，如果每个人都在买某样东西，我们就会认为那样东西更好。我们不喜欢做异类。”
“Another advantage of scale comes from psychology. The psychologists use the term social proof. We are all influenced — subconsciously and to some extent consciously — by what we see others do and approve. So if everybodys buying something, we think its better. We dont like to be the odd man out.”
— Charlie Munger（1994 年 USC 商学院“世界智慧”演讲）
断裂点理论也是一种非常强大的思维模型。一座桥梁可以承受一万磅的重量，但如果你在上面放一万一千磅，它就会塌。
The idea of breakpoints is also a very powerful model. A bridge can hold ten thousand pounds, but if you put eleven thousand pounds on it, it will collapse.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
工程学里面的后备系统是一种非常有用的思想。基本上，断裂点理论也是一种非常强大的思维模型。
The engineering idea of backup systems is a very useful idea. Basically, the idea of breakpoints is also a very powerful model.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“告诉我我会死在哪里，我就不去那里。”
“All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（Berkshire Hathaway 股东信，1996）
对于一个善于思考的人而言，把他的技能编排成一张检查清单，并常常将这张清单派上用场，也是很重要的。
Its important for a thinking person to organize his skills into a checklist and use that checklist routinely.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
飞行员不应该凭记忆驾驶飞机。没有使用检查清单的飞行员不能驾驶飞机。
A pilot should not fly by memory. No pilot who hasnt used a checklist should fly an airplane.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我是一份一份清单的忠实拥趸。如果你遗漏了什么，清单会帮你找回来。
Im a great believer in solving hard problems by using a checklist. If you skip something, the checklist catches it.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你必须弄清楚你的能力在哪里。如果你打牌，你一定要弄清楚什么是你的优势。你必须在自己的能力圈内竞争。”
“You have to figure out where youve got an edge. And youve got to play within your own circle of competence.”
— Charlie Munger（1994 年 USC 商学院“世界智慧”演讲）
知道自己不知道什么，比才华横溢更有用。
Knowing what you dont know is more useful than being brilliant.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
关于能力圈，最重要的事情不是圈有多大，而是你多清楚地知道边界在哪里。
The most important thing about a circle of competence is not how large the area of it is, but how well youve defined the perimeter.
— 转述（据巴菲特 1996 年致股东信相关论述整理）
我们之所以成功，不是因为我们擅长解决难题，而是因为我们擅长避开难题。
We succeeded because we were good at avoiding difficult problems, not because we were good at solving them.
— 转述（据巴菲特 1989 年致股东信相关论述整理）
“知道你不知道什么，比聪明更重要。”
“Knowing what you dont know is more useful than being brilliant.”
— Charlie Munger（Jason Zweig访谈，2014）
“在投资中你不需要成为每家公司的专家，甚至不需要了解很多公司。你只需要能够评估你能力圈之内的公司。圈的大小不重要，知道圈的边界在哪里才重要。”
“You dont have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”
— Warren Buffett（1996年伯克希尔股东信）
“你需要弄清楚你的才能在哪里。如果你试图在你没有才能的地方成功——而别人在那里有才能——你会输得很惨。你必须弄清楚你的优势在哪里，然后在你的优势范围内行动。”
“You need to figure out where your aptitude lies. If you try to succeed in what youre not good at — and other people are — youre going to lose badly. You have to figure out where youve got an edge, and then play within that edge.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
我这辈子成功的秘诀之一就是，我只在自己有巨大优势的领域下注。
Part of the secret of my success in life is that I only play in games where I have a substantial edge.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“假设你拥有一家最好的马鞭厂，突然之间，社会上出现了不用马的汽车。过不了几年，你的马鞭生意就完蛋了。你做出了世界上最好的马鞭也没有用。”
“Lets say you have the best buggy whip factory. All of a sudden, along comes a horseless carriage. Pretty soon, your buggy whip business is dead. Youve got the finest buggy whip factory, and it does you no good.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
当技术转变摧毁了你的核心业务时，世界上所有的管理才能都救不了你。
When technology moves against you, all the management skill in the world wont save you.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
资本主义是一个相当残忍的体系。就像生物系统一样，被充分利用的生态位中，物种彼此竞争到只能勉强生存。那些不够好的会被消灭。
Capitalism is a pretty brutal place. Its a lot like a biological system — in a niche that is fully occupied, species compete to near-death levels. Those who arent good enough get eliminated.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
复利是地球上最重要的模型之一。不到必要的时候，别去打断它。
Compound interest is one of the most important models on earth. And the rule is: never interrupt it unnecessarily.
— 转述（据《Poor Charlies Almanack》相关论述整理）
“理解复利的力量和获取它的困难是理解很多事情的核心和灵魂。”
“Understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things.”
— Charlie Munger（据Janet Lowe相关文章整理）
“我们的秘诀是找到一些伟大的公司，然后坐在屁股上不动。”
“The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》）
“世上没有免费的午餐。”
“Theres no such thing as a free lunch.”
— 经济学谚语，芒格多次引用
如果一个投资机会看起来好得不像真的，那它通常就不是真的。
If something seems too good to be true, it usually is.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我们从来没有通过投资那些我们不理解的东西而赚到钱。
Weve never made money on something we didnt understand.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“能量不会被创造或消灭，只能从一种形式转化为另一种形式。”
“Energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be changed from one form to another.”
— 热力学第一定律（Julius Robert von Mayer, James Prescott Joule等人确立）
“大自然无法被愚弄。”
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”
— Richard Feynman
人的神经系统天生不会用绝对的科学单位来测量。它依赖对比……比较标准的微小变化就能引起反应的巨大变化，反之亦然。
The nervous system of man does not naturally measure in absolute scientific units. It instead depends on contrast... Small changes in the comparison standard can generate large changes in reaction, and vice versa.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“被低对比度的微小变化误导的认知，常常会错过那些决定命运的趋势。”
“Cognition, misled by tiny changes involving low contrast, will often miss a trend that is destiny.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“小小纰漏，能沉大船。”
“A small leak will sink a great ship.” — Benjamin Franklin (frequently quoted by Munger)
— 本杰明·富兰克林（芒格多次引用）
“物理学里面的临界质量概念是一种非常强大的思维模型。”
“The concept of critical mass from physics is a very powerful model.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
“你必须掌握各学科中那些真正重要的大概念——大概只有一百来个——然后把它们变成你自己的思维习惯。”
“Youve got to have models in your head. And youve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
好奇心能够带来乐趣和智慧，偶尔也会带来麻烦，这意味着你应该明智地运用它。
Curiosity can provide both fun and wisdom, and occasionally trouble, which means you should use it wisely.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我不断看到一些人在生活中脱颖而出，他们不是最聪明的，有时甚至不是最勤奋的，但他们是学习机器。他们每天晚上睡觉时都比早上起床时聪明一点点，天哪这太有用了，特别是当你前面还有很长的路要走时。”
“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.”
— Charlie Munger（2007年USC法学院毕业典礼演讲）
“每天都努力比早上醒来时聪明一点。忠实地履行你的职责。一寸一寸地向前推进，日复一日。”
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day.”
— Charlie Munger（Wesco 2003年会）
达尔文是最成功地化解第一结论偏见的人之一。他很早就训练自己努力考虑任何有可能证伪他的假说的证据。
Darwin is one of the best examples of how to overcome first-conclusion bias. He trained himself early to intensively consider any evidence tending to disconfirm any hypothesis of his.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你不能反驳自己所持有的最佳论点，那你就没有资格持有那个观点。
If you cannot state the best arguments against your own position, you dont have the right to hold that position.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类的大脑在进化过程中被设计成能够快速做出判断，然后顽固地坚持这个判断。这在丛林里很管用，但在投资和商业决策中经常是灾难性的。
The human mind is designed by evolution to quickly reach conclusions and then tenaciously hold them. That works great in the jungle but is often disastrous in investment and business decisions.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
在哈佛商学院，所有一年级学生都必须学习决策树理论。其中最有用的思想是：决策中的问题往往出在你没有想清楚后果的后果。
At Harvard Business School, they teach a first-year course in Decision Tree Theory. The great useful idea is that problems in decision-making come when you dont think through the consequences of the consequences.
— 转述（据芒格1995年、2003年演讲相关论述整理）
“巴菲特能够自动地根据决策树理论和排列组合原理来思考问题。”
“Warren Buffett is able to think automatically in terms of decision trees and the elementary math of permutations and combinations.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC商学院演讲）
“大钱不在买入和卖出中赚取，大钱在等待中赚取。”
“The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.”
— Charlie Munger
“如果你不愿意持有一只股票十年，你就不应该持有它十分钟。”
“If you arent willing to own a stock for ten years, dont even think about owning it for ten minutes.”
— Warren Buffett（芒格同样持此观点并反复引用）
“复利的第一条规则是：除非万不得已，永远不要打断它。”
“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.”
— Charlie Munger
“人们从10美元的收益中获得的快乐，远不能匹配从10美元的损失中承受的痛苦。也就是说，损失带来的伤害远大于同等收益带来的喜悦。”
“The quantity of mans pleasure from a ten-dollar gain does not exactly match the quantity of his displeasure from a ten-dollar loss. That is, the loss seems to hurt much more than the gain seems to help.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
差一点就得到某样东西然后被夺走，远比从一开始就没有可能性要痛苦得多。
Almost getting something and having it jerked away is far more painful than never having had the possibility in the first place.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“人对财产、爱情、友谊、领地、机会、地位或任何有价值之物的哪怕很小的损失或损失威胁，通常都会产生不理性的强烈反应。”
“A man ordinarily reacts with irrational intensity to even a small loss, or threatened loss, of property, love, friendship, dominated territory, opportunity, status, or any other valued thing.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“讨厌/憎恨倾向同样起着条件反射的作用，使讨厌者/憎恨者倾向于(1)忽略讨厌对象的优点，(2)讨厌仅仅与讨厌对象相关联的人、产品和行为，(3)为了维持仇恨而扭曲其他事实。”
“The disliking/hating tendency also acts as a conditioning device that makes the disliker/hater tend to (1) ignore virtues in the object of dislike, (2) dislike people, products, and actions merely associated with the object of his dislike, and (3) distort other facts to facilitate hatred.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“在微观经济学中，有一个非常重要的概念叫竞争性毁灭。像Kodak和通用汽车这样的大公司都被它所影响。有时候，新技术或新的做事方式就是会让你完蛋。”
“Theres a very important concept in microeconomics called competitive destruction. Big companies like Kodak and General Motors were affected by it. Sometimes new technology or new ways of doing things just destroy you.”
— Charlie Munger（1994 年 USC 商学院“世界智慧”演讲）
如果你不继续学习，这个世界会把你抛在后面。资本主义的一个特性就是不断地淘汰那些落后的人。
If you dont keep learning, the world will pass you by. Its a feature of capitalism that it constantly grinds down those who fall behind.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们低估了被新事物取代的可能性。世界变化的速度比大多数人意识到的要快。
People underestimate the probability of being displaced by something new. The world changes faster than most people realize.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“人类的大脑被设定为倾向于通过迅速做出某种决定来消除怀疑。”
“The brain of man is programmed with a tendency to quickly remove doubt by reaching some decision.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
什么会触发避免怀疑倾向？一个没有受到威胁的人，看不到问题，不会被促使通过急于做出决定来消除怀疑。触发避免怀疑倾向的通常是(1)困惑和(2)压力的某种结合。
What triggers Doubt-Avoidance Tendency? Well, an unthreatened man, seeing no problem, is not being prompted to remove doubt through rushing to some decision. As we shall see later when we get to Social-Proof Tendency and Stress-Influence Tendency, what usually triggers Doubt-Avoidance Tendency is some combination of (1) puzzlement and (2) stress.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
化学物质错误影响倾向……是最能摧毁人生的倾向之一。
Drug-Misinfluence Tendency... is one of the tendencies with the greatest power to destroy lives.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
这种倾向的破坏力广为人知，无需多言。
This tendencys destructive power is so widely known that little more need be said about it.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我青年时代最亲密的四个朋友都是非常聪明、有道德、幽默的人。其中两位已经去世多年，酒精是导致他们死亡的因素之一。”
“The four closest friends of my youth were highly intelligent, ethical, humorous men. Two are long dead, with alcohol a contributing factor to their deaths.”
— Charlie Munger（1986年哈佛演讲《How to Guarantee a Life of Misery》）
“一旦开始谈论微观经济学，我们就会遇到规模优势这个概念。现在让我们来看看规模优势都有哪些。”
“Once we get into microeconomics, we get into the concept of advantages of scale. Now were getting closer to investment analysis. And here, advantages of scale are ungodly important.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
“你生产的商品越多，你就能更好地生产这种商品。这有很大一部分和简单的几何学有关——油罐的内部容积随半径的立方增长，而建造油罐所需的钢材随半径的平方增长。”
“The very nature of things is that if you get a whole lot of volume through your operation, you get better at processing that volume. Thats an enormous advantage. And it has a lot to do with simple geometry.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
“我发现把自由的市场经济——或者部分自由的市场经济——当做某种生态系统是很有用的思维方式。”
“I find it quite useful to think of a free market economy — or partly free market economy — as sort of the equivalent of an ecosystem.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
动物在合适的地方能够繁衍，同样地，人只要在社会上找到了专属于自己的位置，也能够做得很成功。
Animals that are in the right place, and able to flourish, will flourish. Similarly, people who find the right niche in the economy can do very well.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
安全边际的概念来源于工程学。如果你建造一座桥梁，你确保它能承受三万磅的载荷，即使通行的最大卡车只有一万磅。同样的原则也适用于投资领域。
The idea of a margin of safety comes out of engineering. If youre building a bridge, you insist it can bear thirty thousand pounds, even though the biggest truck that will cross it weighs only ten thousand pounds. The same principle works in the investment world.
— Warren Buffett
格雷厄姆的安全边际概念——买东西要以大幅低于你认为它值的价格——这个概念永远不会过时。
Grahams margin of safety concept — buying things for considerably less than what you think theyre worth — that concept will never be obsolete.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
聪明人之所以会破产，无非三个原因：酒、女人和杠杆。
There are only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies, and leverage.
— 转述（经巴菲特转述；杠杆是安全边际的天敌）
如果你不继续学习，这个世界会把你抛在后面。
If you dont keep learning, the world will pass you by.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
反过来想，总是反过来想。不要想如何成功——想想什么会导致失败，然后避免它。
Invert, always invert. Dont think about how to succeed — think about what causes failure, and avoid it.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在一个封闭系统中，熵永远不会减少——这是自然界最确定的规律之一。”
“The entropy of an isolated system never decreases — this is one of the most certain laws of nature.”
— Rudolf Clausius（热力学第二定律的最初表述者之一）
“生命以负熵为食。”
“Life feeds on negative entropy.”
— Erwin Schrodinger,《What is Life?》
“只有偏执狂才能生存。”
“Only the paranoid survive.”
— Andrew Grove（本质上是对企业熵增的管理学表达）
“驱动这个世界的不是贪婪，而是妒忌。”
“It is not greed that drives the world, but envy.”
— 沃伦·巴菲特（芒格1995年演讲引用）
“嫉妒是一种非常愚蠢的罪过，因为它是唯一一种你绝不可能从中获得任何乐趣的罪过。只有痛苦，没有乐趣。”
“Envy is a really stupid sin because its the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. Theres a lot of pain and no fun.”
— 沃伦·巴菲特（Wesco 2003年会；芒格引用并深表赞同）
“在意别人比你赚钱快这件事，是致命的罪过之一。”
“The idea of caring that someone is making money faster than you are is one of the deadly sins. Envy is a really stupid sin because its the only one you could never possibly have any fun at.”
— 沃伦·巴菲特（Wesco 2003年会；芒格引用并深表赞同）
人特别喜欢自己、自己的同类和自己的思想结构的倾向，以及特别相信自己的结论的倾向......对每个人来说，自我是世界上最重要的东西。
The tendency to especially like oneself, ones own kind, and ones own idea structures, and the tendency to be especially confident in ones own conclusions... each mans self is to him the most important thing in the world.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
90%的瑞典司机认为自己的水平在平均之上......人甚至会高估自己那些微不足道的财产。
Ninety percent of Swedish drivers think they are above average... Even mans minor possessions tend to be overappraised.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
会计数字不是经济现实本身，它们只是经济现实的近似反映——而且有时候是很差的近似。
The numbers in a financial statement are not economic reality itself. They are a rough approximation of economic reality — and sometimes a very poor one.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
给我看激励机制，我就能告诉你结果。
Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“导致某种行为的后果被第三方而非行为者本人承受的情况，我们称之为外部效应。”
“A situation in which the consequences of an action are borne by someone other than the actor is what we call an externality.”
— Arthur Pigou,《The Economics of Welfare》
“在交易成本为零的世界里，资源的初始分配不影响最终的效率结果。”
“In a world of zero transaction costs, the initial allocation of resources does not affect the ultimate efficient outcome.”
— Ronald Coase,《The Problem of Social Cost》
“如果你给一个很长的数字序列乘以零，无论前面的数字多么辉煌，最终结果都是零。”
“If you take a long series of numbers and multiply by zero, no matter how impressive the preceding numbers, the result is always zero.”
— Charlie Munger（2022年伯克希尔股东信）
“建立一个好的声誉需要二十年，毁掉它只需要五分钟。”
“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.”
— Warren Buffett（1991年其子Howard Buffett在《今日美国》采访中引述）
反过来想，总是反过来想。
Invert, always invert.
— Carl Jacobi（经芒格引用）
“我只想知道我会死在哪里，这样我就永远不去那个地方。”
“All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（Berkshire Hathaway 股东信，1996）
对于一项成功的技术而言，现实必须优先于公共关系，因为大自然是不可能被欺骗的。
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.
— Richard Feynman（挑战者号事故调查报告附录）
“你欺骗任何人都容易，但你骗自己最容易。”
“It is easy to fool anyone, but it is easiest to fool yourself.”
— Richard Feynman（芒格1998年基金会演讲引述）
你必须强迫自己考虑反面的论点。尤其是当你对某个观点十分钟爱的时候。
You must force yourself to consider the opposing arguments. Especially when they challenge your best-loved ideas.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你不能比你的反对者更好地陈述反对意见，你就没有资格持有那个观点。
If you cannot state the best arguments against your own position, you dont have the right to hold that position.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
达尔文是最成功地化解第一结论偏见的人之一。他很早就训练自己努力考虑任何有可能证伪他假说的证据。与达尔文相反的做法在这个世界上太普遍了。
Darwin is one of the best examples of how to overcome first-conclusion bias. He trained himself early to intensively consider any evidence tending to disconfirm any hypothesis of his. The opposite of what Darwin did is all too common.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“科学方法的精髓在于可证伪性。你应该设法去推翻你的理论，而不是去证实它。”
“The essence of the scientific method is falsifiability. You should try to disprove your theories, not to confirm them.”
— Karl Popper（芒格引述）
当三四种力量同时朝一个方向运作时，你得到的不是三四倍的效果——你得到的可能是十倍甚至一百倍的效果。这就是lollapalooza效应。
When three or four forces are all operating in the same direction, you dont get a simple sum — you often get a lollapalooza effect, far beyond what any single force could produce.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
理查德·费曼在加州理工的一面黑板上写着：我不能创造的东西，我不理解。这种态度在他一生的成就中至关重要。
Richard Feynman had a blackboard at Caltech on which was written: What I cannot create, I do not understand. That attitude was crucial to his lifes achievements.
— Richard Feynman（加州理工黑板题字；芒格多次引述）
有两种知识：一种是普朗克式的知识——真正的知识，是那种投入了大量精力去理解的人拥有的知识。另一种是司机式的知识——那些只是学会了表演的人拥有的知识。
There are two kinds of knowledge: Planck knowledge — real knowledge, the kind belonging to people whove paid the dues to learn. And chauffeur knowledge — belonging to people whove learned to put on a show.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我注意到，世界上最优秀的物理系不会让学生使用计算器——他们要求学生理解每一步推导的原因。
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你想成为一个更好的思考者，你必须对自己到底懂不懂一件事有绝对诚实的判断。
To be a better thinker, you have to develop an absolutely honest assessment of what you know and what you dont know.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我的做法是把复杂问题简化到最基本的层面，然后从那里开始思考。
My approach is to reduce complex problems to their most fundamental level, and then reason up from there.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们低估了一些简单大道理的重要性。我的经验告诉你，情况恰恰相反——把几条基本的大道理贯彻到底，远比掌握一堆复杂的技巧更有效。
People underrate the importance of a few simple big ideas. My experience tells you the opposite — carrying out a few big ideas to their logical conclusion is much more effective than mastering a lot of complex techniques.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你能把复杂问题拆解成基本组件，然后重新组装，你就能看到别人看不到的东西。
If you can decompose a complex problem into its basic components and reassemble them, you can see things others cannot.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
His rule for all the Braun Companys communications was called the five Ws — you had to tell who was going to do what, where, when and why.
— Charlie Munger, A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom（USC 商学院演讲，1994）
If you wrote a letter or directive in the Braun Company telling somebody to do something, and you didnt tell him why, you could get fired. In fact, you would get fired if you did it twice.
— Charlie Munger, A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom（USC 商学院演讲，1994）
If you always tell people why, theyll understand it better, theyll consider it more important, and theyll be more likely to comply.
— Charlie Munger, The Psychology of Human Misjudgment（哈佛法学院同学会演讲，1995）
“你必须终身学习。如果你不持续学习，其他人会超过你。”
“You have to keep learning all the time. If you dont keep learning, other people will pass you by.”
— Charlie Munger（2022年Berkshire股东信）
“在我的一生中，我认识的所有智慧的人——不管在哪个领域——都在不停地阅读。没有例外。”
“In my whole life, I have known no wise people — over a broad subject matter area — who didnt read all the time. None. Zero.”
— Charlie Munger（Wesco 2003年会）
也许最重要的管理原则就是制定正确的激励机制。
Perhaps the most important rule in management is get the incentives right.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们以为激励只是关于金钱，但这大错特错。权力、地位、自主权——这些激励的力量和金钱一样大，有时甚至更大。
People think incentives are all about money, but thats a big mistake. Power, status, autonomy — these incentives are as powerful as money, sometimes more so.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“决定行为的是决策者的激励机制，这是人之常情。”
“What determines behavior are the incentives for the decision-maker, and thats a very human thing.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
“永远别问理发师你是否需要理发。”
“Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.”
— Warren Buffett
“如果你想说服别人，诉诸利益，而不是诉诸理性。”——本杰明·富兰克林（芒格多次引用）
“If you would persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.”
— Benjamin Franklin, quoted approvingly by Charlie Munger
“人类的大脑通过不愿意改变来节省编程空间，这就是一种避免不一致性倾向。我们在人类所有的习惯中——无论是建设性的还是破坏性的——都能看到这一点。”
“The brain of man conserves programming space by being reluctant to change, which is a form of inconsistency avoidance. We see this in all human habits, constructive and destructive.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
那种罕见的、经过深思熟虑的美好人生，属于那些终其一生都在与自己天生的认知倾向——包括避免不一致性倾向——做斗争的人。
The rare life that is well lived and well thought through is the life of a person who fights against his natural cognitive tendencies, including inconsistency-avoidance tendency, throughout his lifetime.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
最有害的联想形式是你杀死信使时发生的那种。这被称为波斯信使综合症——带来坏消息的人被惩罚。
The most damaging form of association is that which occurs when you kill the messenger. This is called Persian Messenger Syndrome, where the bearer of bad news is punished.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
巴甫洛夫式联想是一种强大的心理力量。人的大脑被编程了一种联想倾向……广告商和宣传者深知这一点。
Pavlovian association is a powerful psychological force. The brain of man is programmed with a tendency to associate... and advertisers and propagandists know this.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
仔细评估过去的经历，找出正确的联想，然后只从那些正确的联想中进行推断。
Carefully evaluate the past for correct associations and then extrapolate only from those.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
对抗波斯信使综合症的正确解药，是养成欢迎坏消息的习惯。
The proper antidote to... the Persian Messenger Syndrome is to develop the practice of welcoming bad news.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“反过来想，总是反过来想。许多难题只有在逆向思考的时候才能得到最好的解决。”
“Invert, always invert. Many hard problems are best solved when they are addressed backward.”
— Carl Jacobi（芒格1996年演讲《Practical Thought About Practical Thought》引述）
“我只想知道我将来会死在什么地方，这样我就可以永远不去那里。”
“All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（巴菲特2009年股东信引述）
聪明人怎么才能接连犯愚蠢的错误而毁掉自己的人生呢？我可以举出四五个会导致这种结局的处方——吸毒、嫉妒、怨恨……
How can smart people go wrong in a way that wrecks their lives? I can give you four or five prescriptions that will guarantee you a life of misery — drug abuse, envy, resentment...
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你仔细审视那些让人们陷入麻烦的原因，你会发现，他们其实只要避开那些明显的愚蠢行为就好了。
If you carefully examine what people get in trouble for, you realize they would have been fine if they had just avoided the obviously foolish stuff.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我在跟其他人交流时不断地看到，那些脱颖而出的人不是最聪明的——有时甚至远不是最勤奋的——而是学习机器。他们每天晚上睡觉时都比早上起来时更聪明一点。”
“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest—sometimes not even the most diligent—but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than when they got up.”
— Charlie Munger（USC 法学院毕业典礼演讲，2007）
你需要的不是大量的行动。你需要大量的耐心，然后在机会来临时果断行动。
What you need is not a lot of action. You need a lot of patience and then aggressive action when the opportunity presents itself.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
康德因其绝对命令——一组必须遵守的行为准则——而闻名。对不公平待遇的抵抗是人类的普遍特质。
Kant was famous for his categorical imperatives—a set of required behaviors. Resistance to being unfairly treated is a universal human trait.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们并不总能认识到，要使道德发挥最佳功能，它有时必须看起来是非理性的。
It is not always recognized that, to function best, morality should sometimes appear to be irrational.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你们必须在头脑中拥有一些思维模型。你们必须依靠这些模型组成的框架来安排你的经验，包括间接的和直接的。”
“Youve got to have models in your head. And youve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
你必须拥有多元思维模型——因为如果你只能使用一两个，研究人性的心理学表明，你将会扭曲现实，直到它符合你的思维模型。
You must have multiple models — because if you just have one or two that youre using, the nature of human psychology is such that youll torture reality so that it fits your models.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，每个问题都像钉子。”
“To a man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”
— Abraham Maslow（芒格1994年USC演讲引述）
各个学科中真正重要的大道理，其数量并不算多。掌握它们并将它们变成你思维习惯的一部分，这不是一件难以企及的事情。
The models that come from the hard sciences and engineering are the most reliable models on this Earth. And the models from biology and physiology are next most reliable. And the ones from psychology are also very useful. But there are only a few of them, and theyre not very hard to learn.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“喜欢/热爱倾向起着一种条件反射的作用，使热爱者倾向于(1)忽略热爱对象的缺点，顺从其意愿，(2)偏爱仅仅与热爱对象相关联的人、产品和行为，(3)为了维持热爱而扭曲其他事实。”
“The liking/loving tendency acts as a conditioning device that makes the liker or lover tend (1) to ignore faults of, and comply with wishes of, the object of his affection, (2) to favor people, products, and actions merely associated with the object of his affection, and (3) to distort other facts to facilitate love.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“人类的头脑很像人类的卵子，卵子有一种关闭机制。当一个精子进入后，它就关闭了通道，使下一个精子无法进入。人类的头脑也有极大的类似倾向。”
“The human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one cant get in. The human mind has a big tendency of the same sort.”
— Charlie Munger（1995年演讲）
“最需要牢记的是，特别强大的力量往往来自这些模型的组合。当几个模型联合起来，你就能得到lollapalooza效应——两种、三种或四种力量共同作用于同一个方向。而且通常你得到的不是简单的加法。它更像物理学中的临界质量——到达某个质量点时你会得到核爆炸，而达不到那个质量就什么也看不到。”
“The most important thing to keep in mind is the idea that especially big forces often come out of these one hundred models. When several models combine, you get lollapalooza effects; this is when two, three, or four forces are all operating in the same direction. And, frequently, you dont get simple addition. Its often like a critical mass in physics where you get a nuclear explosion if you get to a certain point of mass—and you dont get anything much worth seeing if you dont reach the mass.”
— Charlie Munger（Outstanding Investor Digest，1997年12月29日）
心理学最重要的后果之一是我所说的Lollapalooza效应。学术心理学的人甚至没有给它一个名字……他们应该有但他们没有。
One of the most important consequences of psychology is what I call the Lollapalooza Effect. And the Lollapalooza Effect, well, the academic psychology people havent even got a name for it... they should but they dont.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
心理学教科书虽然取得了一些有用的进展，但在正确教授核心课题——倾向的组合会产生极端后果——方面，还有很长的路要走。
The psychology textbooks, while theyve made some useful progress, have a long way to go before theyre going to properly teach the main lesson: that the combination of tendencies creates extreme consequences.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
你必须思考心理倾向的组合。而且你必须认识到，正是组合产生了真正极端的结果。
Youve got to think about the combination of psychological tendencies. And youve got to learn that the combination is what really produces the extreme results.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，每个问题都像钉子。这是一种处理问题时愚蠢的方法。”
“To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Its a terrible way to go through life.”
— Abraham Maslow（芒格1994年USC演讲引述）
你必须拥有多种模型——因为如果你只有一两种你正在使用的模型，人类心理学的天性会使你扭曲现实，直到它适合你的模型——或者至少你认为它适合你的模型。
Youve got to have multiple models — because if you just have one or two that youre using, the nature of human psychology is such that youll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least youll think it does.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果一个人的全部信息来源局限于他的工作经验，他就没有足够的思维模型来对付生活中所有的问题。你们一定要在所有值得信赖的学科中建立模型，然后用一种多元的方式来使用它们。
If all your information comes from your own work experience, you dont have enough models to handle all of lifes problems. Youve got to have models across a fair array of disciplines and use them in a sort of multimodal way.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
伯克希尔的问题是体量太大了。随着资本规模增长，找到好的边际投资机会越来越难。
The trouble with Berkshire is that were too big. As the capital base grows, it becomes harder and harder to find good marginal investment opportunities.
— 转述（据Wesco年会相关论述整理）
你必须弄清楚什么时候该用这个工具，什么时候不该。一个拿着锤子的人看什么都像钉子——这在边际分析上同样成立。
Youve got to figure out when to use the tool and when not to. To a man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail — and that applies to marginal analysis as well.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
微观经济学的伟大之处在于它真的有效。供给和需求、边际效用、边际成本——这些不是空洞的理论，而是每天都在运作的现实力量。
The great useful model, after compound interest, is the elementary math of permutations and combinations... And then the basic math of microeconomics — supply and demand, marginal utility, marginal cost.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“第一个10万美元是最难的。你必须想尽一切办法赚到它。之后，你就可以放松一点。”
“The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it. I dont care what you have to do — if it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasnt purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000.”
— Charlie Munger（1998年伯克希尔年会）
“物品的价值不由它被生产时耗费的劳动决定，而由它对满足人类需求的最后一单位的贡献决定。”
“The value of a thing is not determined by the labor expended in its production, but by its contribution at the margin to the satisfaction of human wants.”
— Carl Menger,《Principles of Economics》
“与收入增加相关的情绪幸福感在年收入约7.5万美元后趋于平缓。高收入买来的是生活满意度，但买不到更多的幸福。”
“High income buys life satisfaction but not happiness, and low income is associated both with low life evaluation and low emotional well-being.”
— Daniel Kahneman Angus Deaton
“第二种可靠的思维模型来自生物学/生理学，因为我们大家毕竟在基因构造方面都是相同的。”
“I suppose the next most reliable models are from biology/ physiology because, after all, all of us are programmed by our genetic makeup to be much the same.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
“当一个声誉卓著的管理层遭遇一个声名狼藉的行业时，不变的是行业的名声。”
“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”
— Warren Buffett（芒格完全认同并多次引用）
“如果你只是记住一些孤立的事实，试图把它们硬凑起来，那你无法真正了解任何东西。如果这些事实不在一个理论框架中相互联系，你就没法把它们派上用场。”
“If you just remember isolated facts and try and bang em back, you cant really know anything. If the facts dont hang together on a latticework of theory, you dont have them in a usable form.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
世界上到处都是非线性的关系，但人们却用线性思维去理解它们。这是许多灾难的根源。
The world is full of nonlinear relationships, yet people think in linear terms. Thats the source of many disasters.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“复利是世界第八大奇迹。”
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.”
— 出处存疑的流行格言：常被挂在爱因斯坦名下，但无原始文献证据；芒格多次引述其精神
“我们从不试图预测市场——我们只是试图在价格远低于价值时买入，然后等待。”
“We never try to predict the market. We just try to buy when the price is far below the value and then wait.”
— Warren Buffett
我们有三个篮子：进入、退出、太难。大多数东西都应该进入太难的篮子。
We have three baskets: in, out, and too hard. Most things should go in the too hard basket.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“告诉我我会死在哪里，这样我就不去那个地方。”
“Tell me where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（Berkshire Hathaway 股东信，1996）
“人们算出来一个数字，觉得很精确，但整个前提假设都是错的。精确地算错，比粗略地算对更危险。”
“People calculate a number and they think its very precise, but the entire premise is wrong. Its more dangerous to be precisely wrong than approximately right.”
— 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）
“人们计算得太多，思考得太少。”
“People calculate too much and think too little.”
— Charlie Munger— Charlie Munger（2002年Wesco年会）
“事情应该尽可能简单，但不能过于简单。”
“Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
— Albert Einstein（芒格2003年演讲《Academic Economics》引述）
我们偏爱把事情变得简单。我们的投资方法如此简单，以至于人们不停地问我们各种复杂的问题——他们无法相信如此简单的方法竟然能够奏效。
We have a passion for keeping things simple. Our investment style is so simple that people constantly ask us complex questions — they cant believe that something so simple could work.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“如果一件事太难了，我们就转而去做别的事。还有什么比这更简单的呢？”
“If something is too hard, we move on to something else. What could be more simple than that?”
— Charlie Munger（Peter Bevelin《Seeking Wisdom》，2020年CalTech访谈佐证）
“机会成本是生活中一个巨大的过滤器。如果你有两个追求者，其中一个比另一个好得多，你就不需要花太多时间做决定。”
“Opportunity cost is a huge filter in life. If youve got two suitors who are really wonderful and one is better than the other, you do not have to spend much time with the other one.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年伯克希尔年会）
聪明人把机会成本作为决策工具。一些教授不理解这一点让我震惊。对于一个够资格的人来说，你的投资方法就是拿每个机会和你已知的最佳机会做比较。这就是你的机会成本标准。
The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they dont. Its just that simple... Your opportunity cost is what you compare everything to.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“一个人想要什么，就会相信什么。”
“What a man wishes, that also will he believe.” — Demosthenes, quoted by Munger
— 德摩斯梯尼（芒格在《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版中引用）
“一个人应该直面现实，即使你不喜欢它——尤其是在你不喜欢它的时候。”
“One should recognize reality even when one doesnt like it; indeed, especially when one doesnt like it.”
— Charlie Munger（2000年Philanthropy Roundtable演讲）
“长期而言，一只股票的回报很难超过底层企业的回报。如果企业在40年间的资本回报率是6%，你持有40年的回报大约也就是6%——即使你买入时有很大的折扣。相反，如果企业在20-30年间的资本回报率是18%，即使你买入时价格看似昂贵，你也将获得很好的回报。”
“Over the long term, its hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, youre not going to make much different than a 6% return. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive-looking price, youll end up with a fine result.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
我和巴菲特在一开始就犯了只买便宜货的错误。我们终于学会了——有些公司值得为之付出更高的价格，因为它们拥有某种特殊的品质。
We made the mistake early on of just buying bargains. We finally learned that some companies are worth paying up for because they have some special quality.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“除了复利原理之外，一个非常有用的思维模型是基本的排列组合原理。”
“Beyond compound interest, a very useful model is the basic math of permutations and combinations.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC商学院演讲）
“你需要学会的是，在生活中如何把事情做到——你不需要完美地做对每一件小事，但你确实需要在几件大事上做对。”
“What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, and bet heavily when the odds are strongly in your favor.”
— Charlie Munger（Janet Lowe《Damn Right!》，2000）
花大量时间去预测那些不可预测的事情是在浪费时间——你应该做的是让自己在各种情况下都能活下来。
Spending lots of time trying to predict the unpredictable is a waste of time — what you should do is make sure you survive in all scenarios.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在临界点附近，微小的变化可以产生巨大的效果。系统变得极度敏感。”
“Near a critical point, tiny changes can produce enormous effects. The system becomes exquisitely sensitive.”
— Philip Anderson, 物理学家
“渐变中的突变是自然界最深刻的戏法。”
“The most profound trick in nature is the sudden shift within the gradual.”
— Per Bak,《How Nature Works》
软科学中有一种对物理学方法论的普遍妒忌。这种妒忌导致人们试图把复杂的人类系统简化为几道牛顿式的公式——这不仅是徒劳的，而且是危险的。
Theres a pervasive physics envy in the soft sciences, leading people to try to reduce complex human systems to a few Newtonian formulas — which is not only futile but dangerous.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类倾向于把事情搞得比实际需要的更精确。一个从来没有正确过的精确答案，有什么用呢？
People have a tendency to want to be more precise than the situation warrants. What good is a precise answer thats never been right?
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
学术经济学的问题在于它嫉妒物理学的精确性，试图用同样的方法论来处理本质上不同的系统。
The trouble with academic economics is that it has physics envy, trying to apply the same methodology to systems that are fundamentally different.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
关于如何获得成功，我没有什么补充。但关于如何失败，我有很多话说。
I have nothing to add about how to succeed. But I have a lot to say about how to fail.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
聪明人怎么才能接连犯愚蠢的错误而毁掉自己的人生呢？我可以举出四五个会导致这种结局的处方。
How can smart people go wrong in a way that wrecks their lives? I can give you four or five prescriptions that will guarantee you a life of misery.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“评估一个生意最重要的单一决策是定价权。如果你拥有提价而不会把生意输给竞争对手的能力，你就拥有一个非常好的生意。”
“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If youve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, youve got a very good business.”
— Warren Buffett
Sees Candies教会了我和沃伦一个重要的教训：人们愿意为品质和品牌支付溢价。这改变了我们对商业的整个看法。
Sees Candies taught us an important lesson… People will pay more for quality and a trusted brand. That changed our whole view of business.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
告诉我激励机制是什么，我就能告诉你结果是什么。
Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我们可以承受财务损失。我们不能承受声誉损失——哪怕一丝一毫。”
“We can afford to lose money — even a lot of money. We cannot afford to lose reputation — even a shred of reputation.”
— Warren Buffett（2010 年致股东信）
生活中很大一部分成功就是知道如何避免做蠢事。
A great part of [success in] life consists of knowing how to avoid being stupid.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
把事情简单化，并在它简单的时候去做。
Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
信任是商业世界的润滑剂。很多经济活动之所以可能，是因为存在信任。它比任何监管体系都高效得多。
“The highest form of civilization is a seamless web of deserved trust.”
— Charlie Munger（2007年USC法学院演讲）
“在重复博弈中，最成功的策略具备四个特征：善良、可报复、宽容和透明。”
“What accounts for TIT FOR TATs robust success is its combination of being nice, retaliatory, forgiving, and clear.”
— Robert Axelrod,《The Evolution of Cooperation》
“每个人追求自身利益的行为，有时会导致对所有人都不利的结果。这不是市场的偶然失灵，而是结构性的。”
— 基于约翰·纳什博弈论核心思想的归纳
如果你没有把这个基本的数学概率方法变成你生活的一部分，那么你就像一个踢屁股比赛中的独腿人。这是一个很简单的概念，你也需要把它纳入日常所用的思维框架中。
If you dont get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.
— 转述（据1994年USC商学院演讲相关论述整理）
费马和帕斯卡的体系与世界运行方式完全一致。它是基本的事实——作为一种思维体系来使用是极好的。
The Fermat/Pascal system is dramatically consonant with the way that the world works. And its fundamental truth. So youve got to have the technique.
— 转述（据1994年USC商学院演讲相关论述整理）
股市就是一个赛马彩池投注系统。你必须寻找定价错误的赌注。
The stock market is a pari-mutuel system. Youve got to look for the mispriced bet.
— 转述（据1994年USC商学院演讲相关论述整理）
德明带到日本的质量控制理论，无非就是利用了费马和帕斯卡的基础数学知识。
The quality control stuff that Deming took to Japan was nothing more than the application of Fermat and Pascals elementary mathematics of probability.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你能把基础数学学好并持续应用它，你在生活中就已经拥有了巨大的优势。大多数人从来不这样做。
If you can learn elementary mathematics well and apply it routinely, you will have a huge advantage in life. Most people never do that.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
很少有什么做法比卡尔·布劳恩工程公司的那个更明智了。该公司要求在每次沟通中都必须说明与之相关的五何——何人、做何事、何地、何时、因何故。
Few practices are wiser than the one at Carl Brauns engineering firm, which required thatichever five Ws were relevant—Who was going to do What, Where, When, and Why—be stated in every communication.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人，尤其是生活在现代文明中的人，天生就有一种既拥有理由又尊重理由的强烈倾向。
Man, especially one living in a modern civilization, naturally has a strong tendency to both have and respect reasons.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“不幸的是，重视理由倾向非常强烈，以至于一个人即使给出一个毫无意义或不正确的理由，也能提高别人对其命令和请求的服从度。”
“Unfortunately, Reason-Respecting Tendency is so strong that even a person giving a meaningless or incorrect reason will increase compliance with his orders and requests.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
你必须把经验挂在你脑中的一个模型格栅上。模型必须来自多个学科。而且模型背后必须有理由。
Youve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head. The models have to come from multiple disciplines. And the models have to have reasons behind them.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类自动地回报善意和恶意的倾向，早已被注意到是极其强烈的。
The automatic tendency of humans to reciprocate both favors and disfavors has long been noticed as extreme.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“对付过度活跃的敌意的标准解药是训练自己延迟反应。”
“The standard antidote to ones overactive hostility is to train oneself to defer reaction.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
在任何地方，一个国家的经济如果让太多聪明人去搞金融或法律，而不是去做工程师和科学家，这个国家就已经在走下坡路了。
In any place where too many bright people are going into finance and law rather than engineering and science, the country is heading for trouble.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
当一个行业的利润率远高于正常水平且持续多年，你就应该追问：这些利润中有多少来自真正的价值创造，有多少来自监管壁垒和政治关系？
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
重复有效的行为是自然界最伟大的算法之一。
Repeat what works is one of the great algorithms of nature.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
斯金纳不被心理学界充分尊重是不幸的。他的基本发现——操作性条件反射——是理解人类和动物行为最重要的原理之一。
It is unfortunate that Skinner is not more revered in psychology. His basic finding — operant conditioning — is one of the most important principles for understanding human and animal behavior.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
当两三种力量在同一方向上运作时，你得到的不是简单加法。你经常得到的是类似核爆炸的结果——这就是lollapalooza效应。
When two or three forces are all operating in the same direction, you dont get simple addition. You often get a nuclear-explosion-like result, which we have called the lollapalooza effect.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你必须知道那些重要的模型，然后把你的经验——无论是直接经验还是间接经验——挂到这个模型格栅上。”
“Youve got to have models in your head. And youve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
“第一条规则：不要亏钱。第二条规则：不要忘记第一条规则。”
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”
— Warren Buffett
“如果我知道我会死在哪里，我就永远不去那个地方。”
“All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（2022年Berkshire股东信）（对不可逆灾难的终极回避策略）
“建立好名声需要二十年，毁掉它只需要五分钟。如果你想到这一点，你做事会不一样的。”
“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, youll do things differently.”
— Warren Buffett（USA Today，1991）
“有些决策是不可逆的、影响深远的——这是单向门。但大多数决策不是这样的——它们是可以改变的、可逆的——它们是双向门。”
“Some decisions are consequential and irreversible — one-way doors. But most decisions arent like that — they are changeable, reversible — theyre two-way doors.”
— Jeff Bezos（2015年Amazon股东信）
“我这辈子在理解激励机制的力量方面一直处于同龄人的前5%，即便如此，我还是一直低估了它。每过一年，总有些新的惊讶让我对激励力量的认知被再次刷新。”
“I think Ive been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life Ive underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.”
— Charlie Munger（1995年演讲）
“If you would persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.” — Benjamin Franklin（《Poor Richards Almanack》；芒格多次引用）
“如果你想说服别人，诉诸利益，而不是诉诸理性。”— 本杰明·富兰克林（《Poor Richards Almanack》；芒格多次引用）
祖母的规矩：要求先完成令人不快的任务，再做令人愉快的事。
The Grandmas Rule: require that unpleasant tasks be done before pleasant ones.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
规模优势的概念极其重要。例如，全世界所有商学院都在教一条道理：一个重要的规模优势就是成本的下降……但规模也有缺点。随着规模增大，你会遇到官僚主义的弊病。
The concept of economies of scale is very important. For example, all of the worlds business schools teach one thing: that a great advantage of scale is that you get cost reductions… But there are also disadvantages of scale. As you get big, you get the bureaucracy.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
大型官僚组织中产生的激励扭曲，是很难控制的……这是规模的一个巨大弊端。
The incentive-caused bias in large bureaucratic organizations… is very hard to control. Its a huge disadvantage of scale.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
规模的优势和劣势是你必须同时理解的。你不能只看到一面而忽略另一面。
The advantages and disadvantages of scale are something you must understand simultaneously. You cant just look at one side and ignore the other.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我们经营伯克希尔的方式——一张值得信赖的无缝之网——比你在任何商学院课本里读到的都管用。
The way we run Berkshire — a seamless web of deserved trust — works better than anything youll read about in any business school textbook.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你要选择一种体系来运营一个大型组织，你要么花大量资源去监控人，要么花大量精力去选对人然后信任他们。我们选了第二种，而且效果远好于第一种。
If youre going to pick a system for running a large organization, you either spend a lot of resources monitoring people, or you spend a lot of effort selecting the right people and then trusting them. We picked the second, and it works far better than the first.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
考虑总体的风险和效益，永远关注潜在的二阶效应和更高层次的影响。
Look at the total potential risk and benefit, always paying attention to potential second-order effects and higher-level impacts.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
所有的后果都不是第一意图的后果。
The consequences are never just the first-order consequences.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“带着快乐不断地思考和学习在某种程度上能够延缓不可避免的衰退过程。”
“Continuous thinking and learning, done with joy, can to some extent delay the inevitable decay that comes with senescence.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“现实太过痛苦，令人无法承受，所以人们会扭曲各种事实，直到它们变得可以承受。”
“The reality is too painful to bear, so one distorts the facts until they become bearable.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
简单的避免痛苦的心理否认是一种后果极其严重的错误认知……这种倾向最极端的结果通常与爱、死亡和药物依赖交织在一起。
Simple, pain-avoiding psychological denial is a miscognition that is terrible in its effects... The tendencys most extreme outcomes are usually mixed up with love, death, and chemical dependency.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“人应该认清现实，即使他不喜欢——事实上，尤其是在他不喜欢的时候。”
“One should recognize reality even when one doesnt like it — indeed, especially when one doesnt like it.”
— Charlie Munger（2000年Philanthropy Roundtable演讲）
人们会自动地模仿他们观察到的周围人的行为。当观察者已经处于困惑或压力状态时，这种倾向最为强烈。
People are automatically doing what they observe being done around them. And the tendency is most strong when the observer is already in a state of puzzlement or stress.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“学会在别人犯错时忽视他们的榜样，因为很少有技能比这更值得拥有。”
“Learn how to ignore the examples from others when they are wrong, because few skills are more worth having.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
在凯蒂·杰诺维斯案中……38名旁观者中没有一个人报警。社会认同让每个人都判定这不是紧急情况，因为其他人都没有做出紧急情况下应有的反应。
In the Kitty Genovese case ... in a group of 38 bystanders, no one called the police. Social proof made each person decide that it was not an emergency because nobody else was acting as if it was.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
巴甫洛夫晚年的工作充分证明了威胁与不确定性的结合能给动物施加多么沉重的压力。
Pavlovs last work well demonstrated the heavy stress that could be imposed on animals by the combination of threat and uncertainty.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
严重的压力能导致人类认知的突然重组，包括对什么是愉快什么是不愉快的认知。
Heavy stress can cause the sudden rearrangement of human cognition, including the cognition of what is pleasant and unpleasant.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
每个人都知道突然的压力——例如濒死体验——能够克服对变化的抵抗。但很少有人意识到突然的压力能在多大程度上消除先前的条件反射。
Everyone recognizes that sudden stress, for instance from a near-death experience, can cause resistance to change to be overcome. But few people realize how much sudden stress can remove previous conditioning.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“如果你发现自己在一个坑里，最重要的事情就是停止挖掘。”
“When youre in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging.”
— Warren Buffett
我们犯过很多错误。我犯的最大的错误不是做错了什么，而是明知应该行动却没有行动——在该卖出一个正在恶化的投资时犹豫不决。
Weve made a lot of mistakes. The biggest mistakes Ive made have not been mistakes of commission, but mistakes of omission — not acting when I should have acted, not selling a deteriorating investment when I should have.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
承认你不知道的东西才是智慧的开端。
Acknowledging what you dont know is the dawning of wisdom.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
当两三种心理倾向同时朝着同一个方向起作用时，你会得到极端的后果。我把这种现象叫做lollapalooza效应。
When two or three of these psychological tendencies act in concert toward the same outcome, you get really extreme consequences. I call this the lollapalooza effect.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你必须在你的头脑中拥有模型，并且把你的经验——无论是间接的还是直接的——挂在这个模型格栅上。”
“Youve got to have models in your head. And youve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”
— Charlie Munger
微观经济学中最基础的概念——供给与需求、竞争优势——如果你不理解它们，你就什么也不理解。
The elementary ideas of microeconomics — supply and demand, competitive advantage — if you dont understand those, you dont understand anything.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“模糊的正确远胜于精确的错误。”
“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
— Charlie Munger（2003年UCSB经济学演讲，灵感源自凯恩斯）
“当新的行业出现时，先行者会获得巨大的优势。如果你是先行者，你会遇到一种我称之为冲浪的模型——当冲浪者顺利冲上浪尖，并停留在那里，他能够冲很长很长一段时间。”
“When technology or something comes along and they get in on the ground floor, theres this model I call surfing — when a surfer gets up and catches the wave and just stays there, he can go a long, long time.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲）
在商业世界中，总有一些先行者被浪潮推着走，他们得到的回报和付出的努力完全不成比例——因为他们恰好站在了正确的位置上。
In the business world, some people get pushed along by the wave and achieve returns quite disproportionate to their effort — because they happened to be in the right spot.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
硅谷的很多人非常擅长冲浪——他们识别新浪潮的能力极强。当然，一路上也淹死了不少人。
A lot of people in Silicon Valley are very good surfers — they have a great ability to identify new waves. Of course, a lot of people have drowned along the way too.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
你必须知道重大思想是如何相互影响的。你必须把它们排列在一个格栅状的框架中，然后利用这个框架。
You must know the big ideas and how they interact. You must lay them on a latticework of models and use them.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你只是孤立地记住一些事物，试图把它们硬塞回去，你就无法真正理解任何东西。如果这些事物不在一个理论框架中相互联系，你就没法真正派上用场。
If you just memorize a few things and try to bang them back, you cant really understand anything. If the facts dont hang together on a latticework of theory, you dont have them in a usable form.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“微观经济学的伟大意义在于让人能够辨别什么时候技术将会帮助你，什么时候它将会摧毁你。”
“The great lesson of microeconomics is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you and when its going to kill you.”
— Charlie Munger（1994 年 USC 商学院“世界智慧”演讲）
聪明人做决策时会考虑机会成本。这是生活中最基本的实用智慧之一。
Smart people make decisions by thinking about opportunity costs. Its one of the most basic and useful forms of practical wisdom.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
文明社会不需要让交易变得如此轻松，以至于人们可以像赌场里的赌徒一样每天进出市场。
A civilization really doesnt need its trading to be made easier to the point where its like a gambling casino.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“摩擦成本在投资中是巨大的破坏力量。所有那些中间人收取的费用，累加起来是天文数字。”
“The general systems of money management today require people to pretend to do something they cant do and like something they dont. Its a terrible way to spend your life, but its very remunerative.”
— Charlie Munger（Firstlinks通讯2022年收录）
“企业存在的理由是，利用企业内部的协调机制可以比利用市场的价格机制更低成本地组织某些交易。”
“The main reason why it is profitable to establish a firm would seem to be that there is a cost of using the price mechanism.”
— Ronald Coase,《The Nature of the Firm》
“当资产专用性高时，交易成本上升，纵向整合变得更有效率。”
“When asset specificity is high, the costs of market governance increase, making vertical integration more efficient.”
— Oliver Williamson,《The Economic Institutions of Capitalism》
人类天生就有本事啰里啰唆。
Mankind has a great talent for twaddle.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
蜜蜂的例子表明，即使是自然界，当信号系统没有正确答案时，也会产生废话。
The honey bee example shows that even nature sometimes produces twaddle when the signaling system doesnt have a proper answer.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我没什么要补充的。”
“I have nothing to add.”
— 芒格在伯克希尔股东大会上的经典回答（Wesco 2006年会笔记）
“首先，理性地看，哪些因素真正控制了涉及的利益？其次，当大脑处于潜意识状态时，会自动形成哪些潜意识因素——这些潜意识因素总的来讲有益还是有害？”
“First, what are the factors that really govern the interests involved, rationally considered? And second, what are the subconscious influences where the brain at a subconscious level is automatically doing these things — which by and large are useful, but which often misfunction?”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
关于两轨分析法——当你在进行分析时，要同时使用理性分析法和心理学分析法。
On the two-track analysis — when youre trying to figure something out, use both rational analysis and psychological analysis.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你把自己训练成一个既能进行理性分析又能排查心理偏差的人，你就有了一种极大的优势。
If you train yourself to be the kind of person who does both rational analysis and psychological checklist review, youll have an enormous advantage.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“所有技能都会因为不用而退化。”
“All skills attenuate with disuse.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“明智的人会终身操练他全部有用但很少使用的技能，其中许多是他本行之外的。”
“A wise man will engage in practice of all his useful, rarely used skills, many of them being outside his discipline.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
“如果一项技能被练习到了流利的程度，而不仅仅是为了通过某次考试而短暂突击的，那么这项技能本质上流失会更慢，在用新的学习来刷新时也会回来得更快。”
“If a skill is raised to fluency, instead of merely being crammed in briefly to enable one to pass some test, then the skill of its nature will be lost more slowly and will come back faster when refreshed with new learning.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
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