东西书院 · dongxishuyuan.com
共收录 68 条语录，其中逐字出处 171 条、转述 219 条。
如果你们年轻时深受意识形态影响，然后开始传播这种意识形态，那么你们无异于将你们的大脑禁锢在一种非常不幸的模式之中。你们的头脑会退化。
If you get young and you get really ideology-ridden and start handing out ideology, youve just locked your brain into a very unfortunate pattern. And youll tend to just deteriorate.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
另外一件我发现的事情是，要得到正确的判断，你必须对对立观点有真诚的兴趣。如果你只是把自己裹在意识形态的大旗里走来走去，你不可能做出好的决定。
Another thing Ive found is that the correct judgment requires genuine interest in the opposing viewpoints. If youre just marching around wrapped in an ideological flag, you cant make good decisions.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我们没有靠天才取胜——我们靠的是避免愚蠢。如果你仔细观察我们的记录，你会发现我们没有做过什么惊天动地的聪明事，但我们也几乎没犯过灾难性的蠢事。
We havent won by being brilliant — weve won by avoiding stupidity. If you look at our record, we havent done many spectacularly smart things, but weve also done very few catastrophically stupid things.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果我知道我将来会死在什么地方，我就永远不去那里。这不是一个笑话——这是一种深刻的生活哲学。
All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there. Thats not a joke — its a profound philosophy for living.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
对于一个善于思考的人而言，把他的技能编排成一张检查清单，并常常将这张清单派上用场，也是很重要的。
Its important for a thinking person to organize his skills into a checklist and use that checklist routinely.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
飞行员不应该凭记忆驾驶飞机。没有使用检查清单的飞行员不能驾驶飞机。
A pilot should not fly by memory. No pilot who hasnt used a checklist should fly an airplane.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我是一份一份清单的忠实拥趸。如果你遗漏了什么，清单会帮你找回来。
Im a great believer in solving hard problems by using a checklist. If you skip something, the checklist catches it.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“知道你不知道什么，比聪明更重要。”
“Knowing what you dont know is more useful than being brilliant.”
— Charlie Munger（Jason Zweig访谈，2014）
“在投资中你不需要成为每家公司的专家，甚至不需要了解很多公司。你只需要能够评估你能力圈之内的公司。圈的大小不重要，知道圈的边界在哪里才重要。”
“You dont have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”
— Warren Buffett（1996年伯克希尔股东信）
达尔文是最成功地化解第一结论偏见的人之一。他很早就训练自己努力考虑任何有可能证伪他的假说的证据。
Darwin is one of the best examples of how to overcome first-conclusion bias. He trained himself early to intensively consider any evidence tending to disconfirm any hypothesis of his.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你不能反驳自己所持有的最佳论点，那你就没有资格持有那个观点。
If you cannot state the best arguments against your own position, you dont have the right to hold that position.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类的大脑在进化过程中被设计成能够快速做出判断，然后顽固地坚持这个判断。这在丛林里很管用，但在投资和商业决策中经常是灾难性的。
The human mind is designed by evolution to quickly reach conclusions and then tenaciously hold them. That works great in the jungle but is often disastrous in investment and business decisions.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人特别喜欢自己、自己的同类和自己的思想结构的倾向，以及特别相信自己的结论的倾向......对每个人来说，自我是世界上最重要的东西。
The tendency to especially like oneself, ones own kind, and ones own idea structures, and the tendency to be especially confident in ones own conclusions... each mans self is to him the most important thing in the world.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
90%的瑞典司机认为自己的水平在平均之上......人甚至会高估自己那些微不足道的财产。
Ninety percent of Swedish drivers think they are above average... Even mans minor possessions tend to be overappraised.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你欺骗任何人都容易，但你骗自己最容易。”
“It is easy to fool anyone, but it is easiest to fool yourself.”
— Richard Feynman（芒格1998年基金会演讲引述）
你必须强迫自己考虑反面的论点。尤其是当你对某个观点十分钟爱的时候。
You must force yourself to consider the opposing arguments. Especially when they challenge your best-loved ideas.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你不能比你的反对者更好地陈述反对意见，你就没有资格持有那个观点。
If you cannot state the best arguments against your own position, you dont have the right to hold that position.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
达尔文是最成功地化解第一结论偏见的人之一。他很早就训练自己努力考虑任何有可能证伪他假说的证据。与达尔文相反的做法在这个世界上太普遍了。
Darwin is one of the best examples of how to overcome first-conclusion bias. He trained himself early to intensively consider any evidence tending to disconfirm any hypothesis of his. The opposite of what Darwin did is all too common.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“科学方法的精髓在于可证伪性。你应该设法去推翻你的理论，而不是去证实它。”
“The essence of the scientific method is falsifiability. You should try to disprove your theories, not to confirm them.”
— Karl Popper（芒格引述）
理查德·费曼在加州理工的一面黑板上写着：我不能创造的东西，我不理解。这种态度在他一生的成就中至关重要。
Richard Feynman had a blackboard at Caltech on which was written: What I cannot create, I do not understand. That attitude was crucial to his lifes achievements.
— Richard Feynman（加州理工黑板题字；芒格多次引述）
有两种知识：一种是普朗克式的知识——真正的知识，是那种投入了大量精力去理解的人拥有的知识。另一种是司机式的知识——那些只是学会了表演的人拥有的知识。
There are two kinds of knowledge: Planck knowledge — real knowledge, the kind belonging to people whove paid the dues to learn. And chauffeur knowledge — belonging to people whove learned to put on a show.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我注意到，世界上最优秀的物理系不会让学生使用计算器——他们要求学生理解每一步推导的原因。
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你想成为一个更好的思考者，你必须对自己到底懂不懂一件事有绝对诚实的判断。
To be a better thinker, you have to develop an absolutely honest assessment of what you know and what you dont know.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
我的做法是把复杂问题简化到最基本的层面，然后从那里开始思考。
My approach is to reduce complex problems to their most fundamental level, and then reason up from there.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们低估了一些简单大道理的重要性。我的经验告诉你，情况恰恰相反——把几条基本的大道理贯彻到底，远比掌握一堆复杂的技巧更有效。
People underrate the importance of a few simple big ideas. My experience tells you the opposite — carrying out a few big ideas to their logical conclusion is much more effective than mastering a lot of complex techniques.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你能把复杂问题拆解成基本组件，然后重新组装，你就能看到别人看不到的东西。
If you can decompose a complex problem into its basic components and reassemble them, you can see things others cannot.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
His rule for all the Braun Companys communications was called the five Ws — you had to tell who was going to do what, where, when and why.
— Charlie Munger, A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom（USC 商学院演讲，1994）
If you wrote a letter or directive in the Braun Company telling somebody to do something, and you didnt tell him why, you could get fired. In fact, you would get fired if you did it twice.
— Charlie Munger, A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom（USC 商学院演讲，1994）
If you always tell people why, theyll understand it better, theyll consider it more important, and theyll be more likely to comply.
— Charlie Munger, The Psychology of Human Misjudgment（哈佛法学院同学会演讲，1995）
“人类的大脑通过不愿意改变来节省编程空间，这就是一种避免不一致性倾向。我们在人类所有的习惯中——无论是建设性的还是破坏性的——都能看到这一点。”
“The brain of man conserves programming space by being reluctant to change, which is a form of inconsistency avoidance. We see this in all human habits, constructive and destructive.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
那种罕见的、经过深思熟虑的美好人生，属于那些终其一生都在与自己天生的认知倾向——包括避免不一致性倾向——做斗争的人。
The rare life that is well lived and well thought through is the life of a person who fights against his natural cognitive tendencies, including inconsistency-avoidance tendency, throughout his lifetime.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“反过来想，总是反过来想。许多难题只有在逆向思考的时候才能得到最好的解决。”
“Invert, always invert. Many hard problems are best solved when they are addressed backward.”
— Carl Jacobi（芒格1996年演讲《Practical Thought About Practical Thought》引述）
“我只想知道我将来会死在什么地方，这样我就可以永远不去那里。”
“All I want to know is where Im going to die, so Ill never go there.”
— Charlie Munger（巴菲特2009年股东信引述）
聪明人怎么才能接连犯愚蠢的错误而毁掉自己的人生呢？我可以举出四五个会导致这种结局的处方——吸毒、嫉妒、怨恨……
How can smart people go wrong in a way that wrecks their lives? I can give you four or five prescriptions that will guarantee you a life of misery — drug abuse, envy, resentment...
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你仔细审视那些让人们陷入麻烦的原因，你会发现，他们其实只要避开那些明显的愚蠢行为就好了。
If you carefully examine what people get in trouble for, you realize they would have been fine if they had just avoided the obviously foolish stuff.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“你们必须在头脑中拥有一些思维模型。你们必须依靠这些模型组成的框架来安排你的经验，包括间接的和直接的。”
“Youve got to have models in your head. And youve got to array your experience — both vicarious and direct — on this latticework of models.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
你必须拥有多元思维模型——因为如果你只能使用一两个，研究人性的心理学表明，你将会扭曲现实，直到它符合你的思维模型。
You must have multiple models — because if you just have one or two that youre using, the nature of human psychology is such that youll torture reality so that it fits your models.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，每个问题都像钉子。”
“To a man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”
— Abraham Maslow（芒格1994年USC演讲引述）
各个学科中真正重要的大道理，其数量并不算多。掌握它们并将它们变成你思维习惯的一部分，这不是一件难以企及的事情。
The models that come from the hard sciences and engineering are the most reliable models on this Earth. And the models from biology and physiology are next most reliable. And the ones from psychology are also very useful. But there are only a few of them, and theyre not very hard to learn.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“最需要牢记的是，特别强大的力量往往来自这些模型的组合。当几个模型联合起来，你就能得到lollapalooza效应——两种、三种或四种力量共同作用于同一个方向。而且通常你得到的不是简单的加法。它更像物理学中的临界质量——到达某个质量点时你会得到核爆炸，而达不到那个质量就什么也看不到。”
“The most important thing to keep in mind is the idea that especially big forces often come out of these one hundred models. When several models combine, you get lollapalooza effects; this is when two, three, or four forces are all operating in the same direction. And, frequently, you dont get simple addition. Its often like a critical mass in physics where you get a nuclear explosion if you get to a certain point of mass—and you dont get anything much worth seeing if you dont reach the mass.”
— Charlie Munger（Outstanding Investor Digest，1997年12月29日）
心理学最重要的后果之一是我所说的Lollapalooza效应。学术心理学的人甚至没有给它一个名字……他们应该有但他们没有。
One of the most important consequences of psychology is what I call the Lollapalooza Effect. And the Lollapalooza Effect, well, the academic psychology people havent even got a name for it... they should but they dont.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
心理学教科书虽然取得了一些有用的进展，但在正确教授核心课题——倾向的组合会产生极端后果——方面，还有很长的路要走。
The psychology textbooks, while theyve made some useful progress, have a long way to go before theyre going to properly teach the main lesson: that the combination of tendencies creates extreme consequences.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
你必须思考心理倾向的组合。而且你必须认识到，正是组合产生了真正极端的结果。
Youve got to think about the combination of psychological tendencies. And youve got to learn that the combination is what really produces the extreme results.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“在手里拿着铁锤的人看来，每个问题都像钉子。这是一种处理问题时愚蠢的方法。”
“To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Its a terrible way to go through life.”
— Abraham Maslow（芒格1994年USC演讲引述）
你必须拥有多种模型——因为如果你只有一两种你正在使用的模型，人类心理学的天性会使你扭曲现实，直到它适合你的模型——或者至少你认为它适合你的模型。
Youve got to have multiple models — because if you just have one or two that youre using, the nature of human psychology is such that youll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least youll think it does.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果一个人的全部信息来源局限于他的工作经验，他就没有足够的思维模型来对付生活中所有的问题。你们一定要在所有值得信赖的学科中建立模型，然后用一种多元的方式来使用它们。
If all your information comes from your own work experience, you dont have enough models to handle all of lifes problems. Youve got to have models across a fair array of disciplines and use them in a sort of multimodal way.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“如果你只是记住一些孤立的事实，试图把它们硬凑起来，那你无法真正了解任何东西。如果这些事实不在一个理论框架中相互联系，你就没法把它们派上用场。”
“If you just remember isolated facts and try and bang em back, you cant really know anything. If the facts dont hang together on a latticework of theory, you dont have them in a usable form.”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
“事情应该尽可能简单，但不能过于简单。”
“Things should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
— Albert Einstein（芒格2003年演讲《Academic Economics》引述）
我们偏爱把事情变得简单。我们的投资方法如此简单，以至于人们不停地问我们各种复杂的问题——他们无法相信如此简单的方法竟然能够奏效。
We have a passion for keeping things simple. Our investment style is so simple that people constantly ask us complex questions — they cant believe that something so simple could work.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“如果一件事太难了，我们就转而去做别的事。还有什么比这更简单的呢？”
“If something is too hard, we move on to something else. What could be more simple than that?”
— Charlie Munger（Peter Bevelin《Seeking Wisdom》，2020年CalTech访谈佐证）
软科学中有一种对物理学方法论的普遍妒忌。这种妒忌导致人们试图把复杂的人类系统简化为几道牛顿式的公式——这不仅是徒劳的，而且是危险的。
Theres a pervasive physics envy in the soft sciences, leading people to try to reduce complex human systems to a few Newtonian formulas — which is not only futile but dangerous.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人类倾向于把事情搞得比实际需要的更精确。一个从来没有正确过的精确答案，有什么用呢？
People have a tendency to want to be more precise than the situation warrants. What good is a precise answer thats never been right?
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
学术经济学的问题在于它嫉妒物理学的精确性，试图用同样的方法论来处理本质上不同的系统。
The trouble with academic economics is that it has physics envy, trying to apply the same methodology to systems that are fundamentally different.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
关于如何获得成功，我没有什么补充。但关于如何失败，我有很多话说。
I have nothing to add about how to succeed. But I have a lot to say about how to fail.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
聪明人怎么才能接连犯愚蠢的错误而毁掉自己的人生呢？我可以举出四五个会导致这种结局的处方。
How can smart people go wrong in a way that wrecks their lives? I can give you four or five prescriptions that will guarantee you a life of misery.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
重复有效的行为是自然界最伟大的算法之一。
Repeat what works is one of the great algorithms of nature.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
斯金纳不被心理学界充分尊重是不幸的。他的基本发现——操作性条件反射——是理解人类和动物行为最重要的原理之一。
It is unfortunate that Skinner is not more revered in psychology. His basic finding — operant conditioning — is one of the most important principles for understanding human and animal behavior.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“我这辈子在理解激励机制的力量方面一直处于同龄人的前5%，即便如此，我还是一直低估了它。每过一年，总有些新的惊讶让我对激励力量的认知被再次刷新。”
“I think Ive been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life Ive underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.”
— Charlie Munger（1995年演讲）
“If you would persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.” — Benjamin Franklin（《Poor Richards Almanack》；芒格多次引用）
“如果你想说服别人，诉诸利益，而不是诉诸理性。”— 本杰明·富兰克林（《Poor Richards Almanack》；芒格多次引用）
祖母的规矩：要求先完成令人不快的任务，再做令人愉快的事。
The Grandmas Rule: require that unpleasant tasks be done before pleasant ones.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
考虑总体的风险和效益，永远关注潜在的二阶效应和更高层次的影响。
Look at the total potential risk and benefit, always paying attention to potential second-order effects and higher-level impacts.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
所有的后果都不是第一意图的后果。
The consequences are never just the first-order consequences.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
人们会自动地模仿他们观察到的周围人的行为。当观察者已经处于困惑或压力状态时，这种倾向最为强烈。
People are automatically doing what they observe being done around them. And the tendency is most strong when the observer is already in a state of puzzlement or stress.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“学会在别人犯错时忽视他们的榜样，因为很少有技能比这更值得拥有。”
“Learn how to ignore the examples from others when they are wrong, because few skills are more worth having.”
— Charlie Munger（《Poor Charlies Almanack》扩展版）
在凯蒂·杰诺维斯案中……38名旁观者中没有一个人报警。社会认同让每个人都判定这不是紧急情况，因为其他人都没有做出紧急情况下应有的反应。
In the Kitty Genovese case ... in a group of 38 bystanders, no one called the police. Social proof made each person decide that it was not an emergency because nobody else was acting as if it was.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
“首先，理性地看，哪些因素真正控制了涉及的利益？其次，当大脑处于潜意识状态时，会自动形成哪些潜意识因素——这些潜意识因素总的来讲有益还是有害？”
“First, what are the factors that really govern the interests involved, rationally considered? And second, what are the subconscious influences where the brain at a subconscious level is automatically doing these things — which by and large are useful, but which often misfunction?”
— Charlie Munger（1994年USC演讲《A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom》）
关于两轨分析法——当你在进行分析时，要同时使用理性分析法和心理学分析法。
On the two-track analysis — when youre trying to figure something out, use both rational analysis and psychological analysis.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
如果你把自己训练成一个既能进行理性分析又能排查心理偏差的人，你就有了一种极大的优势。
If you train yourself to be the kind of person who does both rational analysis and psychological checklist review, youll have an enormous advantage.
— 转述（据芒格相关论述整理）
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