关键要点
- 模型假设：二十多岁创业成功，之后再活 60 年；1% 财富税意味着每年保留 99% 股票，60 年后剩 .99^60≈54.7%——政府拿走 45%。
- 各档税率 60 年拿走比例：0.1%→6%，0.5%→26%，1%→45%，2%→70%，3%→84%，4%→91%，5%→95%。
- 加 $5000 万起征点（假设初始股票 $200 万、增速 3x→2x→1.5x 之后 8%）：2% 税率仍拿走 65%，约三分之二。
- 效果惊人的原因：财富税对同一笔钱反复征税——所得税每年只对当年收入征一次，财富税 60 年对同一资产征 60 次；财富税会复利。
- 注：模型假设 8% 增长全是股价增值（未计分红所得税），已是“对创始人最乐观的情形”。
—— 本文选自东西书院 dongxishuyuan.com
PG 原话
所以，1% 的单一财富税意味着，政府将在你的一生中拿走你 45% 的股票。
So a straight 1% wealth tax means the government will over the course of your life take 45% of your stock.
2% 的财富税加上 $5000 万起征点，会拿走一位成功创始人约三分之二的股票。
A 2% wealth tax with a $50 million threshold takes about two thirds of a successful founders stock.
财富税会复利。
A wealth tax compounds.
出处
- 英文原题：Modeling a Wealth Tax（2020年8月）
- 原文：https://www.paulgraham.com/wtax.html
- 本书院编译 · 底本为 paulgraham.com 英文原典
中文为本书院编译（意译），关键英文术语保留原文；英文引文逐字核验为原典连续子串。
延伸阅读 · 跨篇互见
Noora Health 发行救命 NFT：为南亚新生儿护理项目筹款，拍得越高救的人越多。
For every 1000 live births, they save 9 babies.
Noora is so effective that even if you measure their costs in the most conservative way, by dividing their entire budget by the number of lives saved, the cost of saving a life is the lowest Ive seen. $1,235.
场景交集：决策出处：An NFT That Saves Lives · paulgraham.com 原文 ↗
限定用途的捐款是非营利界的隐形诅咒：非营利组织比捐款人更懂钱该花在哪，不信任就别捐。
If a nonprofit doesnt understand better than its donors where money needs to be spent, then its incompetent and you shouldnt be donating to it at all.
If you want to donate to a nonprofit, donate unrestricted. If you trust them to spend your money, trust them to decide how.
场景交集：决策出处：Donate Unrestricted · paulgraham.com 原文 ↗
跟大公司的 Corp Dev 谈通常是错的——除非你现在就想卖且大概率拿到可接受的报价；中间地带最危险。
Its usually a mistake to talk to corp dev unless (a) you want to sell your company right now and (b) youre sufficiently likely to get an offer at an acceptable price.
Boys, do you know why I never became a drunkard? Because I never took the first drink.
场景交集：决策出处：Dont Talk to Corp Dev · paulgraham.com 原文 ↗
快照：1998 年 6 月的 Viaweb
一张收购前夜的网站快照，记录了 1998 年互联网的原始模样。
Back in the 90s, to get users you had to get mentioned in magazines and newspapers.
In those days there was no AWS. Even colocating servers seemed too risky, considering how often things went wrong with them.
场景交集：决策出处：Snapshot: Viaweb, June 1998 · paulgraham.com 原文 ↗
本区为 L2 延展案例（跨篇互见）：PG 其他原典中的相关论述，仍属原典直读；引文均为逐字核验。解读与主编观点见 L3（筹备中）。